The country was sent into a frenzy last night when President Trump tweeted that he and first lady Melania both tested positive for coronavirus. Hope Hicks, one of the closest aides to the President, also tested positive. As most people are aware, Covid-19 is a serious infection that disproportionately impacts older and unhealthier people, as well as people of color (about 30% of all people who have been hospitalized due to covid are black, yet only 13% of the U.S. is black). Trump is now 74-years-old and mildly obese at 244 pounds and 6'3". This puts him in the highest risk category, and highlights the total failure by his White House team to protect the President. The U.S. politics and prediction marketplace PredictIt gives the Democrats a 70% chance of winning the White House next month, compared to 34% by Republicans. Biden has a 66% chance of winning the Presidency now, compared to 37% by Trump (accounting for drop-outs). The markets predict a 280+ win for Democrats, and 62% of bettors believe we will know the definitive outcome of the election by November 4.

Los Angeles Times (Oct 2, 2020)